Saguaro Street Coffee

Question 1

Are sales really growing, or are higher prices hiding a drop in customers?

Higher prices are hiding a drop. Over the last 12 months sales are flat, but customer visits are down 4.6%. Prices went up about 9% in Feb 2026, which kept sales close to flat while fewer people came in.

• No changeSales, last 12 months vs. the 12 before
• Down 4.6%Customer visits, same comparison
• Up 5.7%Average price per item, same comparison

What suppliers are charging

Sales are down 6.0% from the same three months last year, but coffee bills are up 4.5%, dairy bills are up 12.8%. Out of every sales dollar, 21.6 cents now goes to suppliers, up from 20.5.

From the accounting export: bills coded to Cost of Goods Sold or Supplies.

Question 2

Which regular customers have stopped coming, and who may be at risk of leaving?

28 regulars stopped coming, and 27 more are coming in a lot less. The ones who stopped used to spend about $1,422 a month together.

A regular is someone with 18+ visits in 6 months. Stopped means a regular with no visit in 21+ days. At risk means a regular whose last 6 weeks are under 60% of their usual pace.

Stopped coming

At risk

Question 3

Which products bring in the most revenue, and which ones barely move?

Latte brings in the most, $53,687 over the last 12 months. Lavender Oat Latte barely moves, about 4.2 a week. Gluten-Free Scone barely moves, about 3.8 a week.

Question 4

How much money is being lost to discounts, refunds, and voids?

$9,942 over the last 12 months, 2.5% of sales. Voids rung by Jordan Kim went from 3.9 to 27.7 per 1,000 items in the last 8 weeks.

• $6,664Discounts
• $1,483Refunds
• $1,795Voids

Discounts by name

Voids by who rang them

Question 5

When is the business busiest, and are those the right hours to schedule more help?

Busiest: Saturday at 9 AM, about 26.5 visits an hour. The timesheets show the schedule doesn't match. Saturday at 9 AM has 2 people for 26.5 visits. Sunday at 1 PM has 3 people for 6.3. Slow almost every week: Saturday at 6 AM; Saturday at 2 PM; Sunday at 6 AM; Sunday at 1 PM; Sunday at 2 PM.

Average visits in each hour over the last 13 weeks. Darker squares are busier.

Stretched thin

More help than needed

Staff on means on the clock for 30+ minutes of the hour, averaged over the last 13 weeks.

Consistently slow

Slow means under 60% of that week's average hour, in 75%+ of the last 13 weeks.

Question 6

Do people who find the business online become paying customers?

51% of new people who filled out a form from Google became paying customers. Instagram sends 20,986 website visits to Google's 25,069, but only 21.7% of its new people bought, and they spent $284 in their first 90 days against $1,645. Catering requests answered within a day booked 32% of the time. After two days, 8.7%. On phones, only 16.4% of catering page visits stick around, against 75.1% on computers.

Website forms, by where people came from

Became a customer means first purchase within 90 days after the form, matched by email. Counts leads older than 90 days, not counting job applications. Rate is out of people who weren't customers yet.

Catering requests, by how fast someone answered

Website pages, phone and computer

"Stayed and looked" is what the analytics export calls an engaged session.

How customers say they found you

Age counts only customers who gave a full birthday.

Question 7

Is the average customer spending more or less than before?

More, but only because prices went up. The average visit is up 5.8% from the same three months last year, and the average price per item is up 8.2%. People are buying about the same number of items (down 0.7%).

• $8.00Average visit, last 3 months
• $7.56Same 3 months last year
• 1.45Items per visit, last 3 months

Question 8

Are promotions bringing customers back, or just giving away margin?

Happy Hour 20% mostly gives away margin: $2,619 so far, and 96.5% of the people who used it were already coming in. It added about 5.8% more weekday visits. WELCOMEBACK 15% worked: 44 customers who had stopped coming came back, and 45.5% of them came in again within a month.

Already coming means the customer had a visit in the 30 days before using it. Came back means the customer visited again within 30 days after using it.

Why not just ask the AI?

The first 2,000 rows of this file cover Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 17, 2024. That is 1.3% of the file, which covers Oct 7, 2024 to Oct 11, 2026. If an AI only reads the top of the file, it sees 0 regulars who stopped coming. Counting every row finds 28.

What the cleanup changed

Before counting anything, the file was cleaned. Here is every change, so you can check it.

• 153,010 rows read.
• 645 duplicate rows removed (the register saved the same line twice).
• 493 refunds and 621 voids kept separate from sales.
• 53,858 rows had no customer attached. They count toward sales, not toward customers.
• 12 item spellings fixed.

The other files

• Customer list: 1,500 customers. Birthdays were typed three ways: 747 with a year, 473 without, 280 blank. Phone numbers repeat across customers, so matching uses email only.
• Timesheets: 6 shifts saved twice, 17 names typed by hand and fixed, 5 shifts with no clock-out left out of the hours. The register shows first names; the timesheets have full names, so they were matched on first name.
• Accounting: 3 bills entered twice, 9 vendor credits counted as money back.
• Website forms: times converted from UTC by -7 hours to match the register. 146 emails had capital letters or extra spaces and were cleaned so they match the customer list.
• Website analytics: 23,119 rows. Sources listed more than one way were combined: Instagram.